Análisis prospectivo estratégico del Subsistema de Salud de las Fuerzas Militares al 2030, con el fin de proponer estrategias en los escenarios futuros posibles para el desarrollo de las Fuerzas Militares

Abstract

“...la principal función de las instituciones es reducir la incertidumbre, pero ello no significa que sean estáticas, al contrario, se encuentran en constante evolución, alterando el marco de referencia para las elecciones” (North, 1990). En consecuencia, esta tesis presenta estudios futuros que explican los escenarios posibles que enfrenta el Subsistema de Salud de las Fuerzas Militares de Colombia mediante la metodología de prospectiva estratégica. Inicialmente se indaga en conceptos básicos de planeación y direccionamiento estratégicos, orientados a investigaciones futuras con el fin de examinar o conocer las diferentes escuelas de prospectiva, posteriormente profundizar en el modelo de prospectiva de Michael Godet, teniendo en cuenta los fenómenos, económicos, sociales, culturales, tecnológicos, políticos, etc. llamados factores de cambios por medio de los árboles de competencia de Marc Giget.

Faced with the uncertainty that represents a changing world, full of tensions and that adheres to chaotic political, technological, scientific, philosophical, cultural and social trends that impede certainty in knowledge, the question remains in the air about the function that institutions must exercise today. And, the conclusion is that "... the main function of institutions is to reduce uncertainty, but this doesn’t mean that they are static, on the contrary, they are constantly evolving, altering the frame of reference for elections ..." (North , 1990). In order to pursue the institutional function of providing programmatic horizons and anticipating possible scenarios faced by uncertainty; the present work is aimed at the prospective analysis of the Health subsystem of the Colombian Military Forces in order to propose strategies in the possible future scenarios for their development through their health system, through the strategic prospective methodology. Initially, it will be investigated in basic concepts of planning and strategic direction, oriented towards investigations in order to examine or know the different schools of 5 prospective; later, the prospective model of Michael Godet will be studied in depth, taking into account the “factors of change” and the analysis of their representations and manifestations through Marc Giget's “competence trees”. As a starting point, an exploration of the state of the art is carried out, which will be manifested in the plan for the management of the Health strategy based on the transversal development of the Colombian Military Forces, in order to provide diagnoses on their current capacities and thus, being able to model strategic scenarios that contribute to the health sector in the Ministry of Defense in the future.