Análisis de las ventas del canal tienda a tienda frente a la entrada de las tiendas Hard- Discount en el periodo 2013 – 2015 bajo la aplicación de un modelo ARIMA que permita identificar cambios estructurales en las ventas de la categoría de leche APP para el canal tradicional de la ciudad de Bogotá en la compañía Parmalat Colombia

Abstract

Las tiendas de barrio son el principal canal de distribución de productos de primera necesidad y de consumo masivo. En la actualidad las tiendas de barrio son fundamentales para el crecimiento de compañías proveedoras de consumo masivo que funcionan bajo un esquema de distribución llamado canal TAT (tienda a tienda). La fuerza de proveedores que surte en casi todos los casos a las tiendas de barrio, son tradicionalmente grandes proveedores: como es el caso de la empresa aquí considerada, la multinacional Parmalat, que provee tanto leche como productos lácteos. Los productos que se venden bajo la modalidad TAT son, artículos de consumo masivo tales como leche, pastas, aceites, grasas, gaseosas, pan, shampoo, cerveza, entre otros. La aparición en el mercado colombiano de grandes jugadores comerciales (Ara, D1, Justo y Bueno, entre otros), ha cambiado radicalmente el escenario de negocios, golpeando directamente el margen bruto de beneficio no sólo de tenderos de barrio, sino también de los otros componentes de la cadena comercial, como es el caso de distribuidores comerciales: droguerías, panaderías, y minimercados, así como a los grandes y pequeños proveedores de estos tenderos.

The neighborhood stores are the main distribution channel for necessities and mass consumption products. Currently, neighborhood stores are essential for the growth of mass consumption supplier companies that operate under a distribution scheme called the TAT channel (store to store). The force of suppliers that supplies neighborhood stores in almost all cases are traditionally large suppliers: as is the case of the company considered here, the multinational Parmalat, which supplies both milk and dairy products. The products sold under the TAT modality are mass consumption items such as milk, pasta, oils, fats, soft drinks, bread, shampoo, beer, among others. The appearance in the Colombian market of large commercial players (Ara, D1, Justo & Bueno, among others), has radically changed the business scenario, directly hitting the gross profit margin not only of neighborhood grocers, but also of others. components of the commercial chain, such as commercial distributors: drugstores, bakeries, and mini-markets, as well as large and small suppliers of these shopkeepers. Hard discount stores appear in the Colombian market displaying commercial formulas that guarantee them to maintain low prices for the products they sell. Similarly, the essence of your business lies in the systematic control of the costs of managing your inventories. A careful management of inventory costs guarantees good management of the intermediation margins and the profits of the hard-discount stores. The latter, large players in the market, conquer gross profit margins that are very difficult to achieve by their competitors: the neighborhood grocers. Among the most important recommendations obtained in this Master's degree work is that the group of neighborhood shopkeepers must react to these changes by incorporating new associative modalities in their competition strategies in the market, implementing, for example, the use of Inventory control systems software, technical distribution and storage centers, managed collectively by the same shopkeepers, in such a way that it allows them to transform, connect and strengthen the generation of surplus value within their own value chain. It is also structured, based on a demanding methodology, a time series regression model, built with detailed information from the databases of the Parmalat company.